(はじめに結論)
新作をローンチしなかった。
バーチャルグッズと広告の収入は減った。
Facebookに場代を払った。
人を一気に雇いすぎた。
http://www.quora.com/Zynga/Why-are-Zynga-profits-down-95
Revenues seem to be still growing in a healthy way.
Why are the profits going down
(e.g.: large acquisitions, exploding personnel cost,
higher marketing cost to acquire a new user) ?
収入は増えているのに、なぜ利益は減ったのか?
買収か、人件費か、新しいユーザー獲得のためのマーケティングコストか?
Here, direct from the S1, is the figure that matters more.
Operating income in the most recent quarter declined
year over year from $13.4 million to $13 million
- not the big 95% drop reported in the news.
In general, other income can fluctuate because of foreign exchange losses
and other factors.
Other income of course affects net income,
but not operating income.
Net income did decline 95% because of the effect of other income.
Journalists, smelling a sensational headline,
promoted that number,
despite that fact that it is not really the most accurate representation
of the economics of the underlying business.
営業利益は少し下がった。
また、外国為替の影響がある。
でも、ジャーナリストは煽りすぎ。
The bigger question is why operating income isn't wildly up,
given that revenue has more than doubled.
R&D expenses as a % of revenue have gone from 23% of revenue to 34%, a big change.
G&A has gone from 12% of revenue to 19% of revenue.
If revenue was higher, these things wouldn't have happened.
So the real question is why aren't revenues higher?
Some pieces of the puzzle:
なぜ収入は2倍以上になったのに営業利益は上がらなかったのか?
R&Dへの支出は34%に増えました。
一般管理費も19%に増えました。
本当の疑問は、なぜ収入がもっと上がらなかったのかということです。
The number of daily active users has actually declined year over year from 60 million to 59 million
They haven't launched enough good new games recently.
They've been required to use Facebook Credits
and Facebook takes a 30% cut of all purchases.
The only reason revenues rose at all was that bookings per user
rose significantly from 3.6 cents to 5.1 cents year over year.
3 quarters ago it was 4.9 cents.
Admittedly Facebook Credits affects these numbers as the transition
to Facebook Credits began in July 2010 and ended in April 2011.
The figure is an average daily booking per active daily user.
Revenue growth is higher than bookings growth
because bookings are recognized over several quarters.
デイリーアクティブユーザーは減った。
良いゲームをローンチできなかった。
30%の場代をFacebook Creditが持って行った。
ユーザー1人当たりの利益は5.1セントに増えた。
収入の上昇が、ユーザー1人当たりの利益の上昇を上回った。
So:
Zynga has not been growing its user base significantly
Zynga has not been growing its bookings per user significantly
A significant portion of its revenue growth is driven by accounting
なので
ユーザーベースを増やせなかった
ユーザー1人当たりの利益をあまり増やせなかった
主な収入源は会計だった
That raises some broader issues about growth and attractiveness of the category.
It's harder to launch games and apps on Facebook now.
The entertainment business is hit-driven and difficult to predict
Facebookにゲームとアプリを出すのは難しい。
エンターテインメントビジネスはヒットするかどうかの予測が難しい。
They recently launched one new game and they have several strong existing games.
They recently launched a game called Empires and Allies
which has been well received, with 27 million monthly active users (MAU).
This can be compared to their most popular game Cityville
which has 69 million monthly active users
now and 61 million monthly active users 50 days after its launch.
The next most popular games are Farmville with 37 million and Poker with 35 million.
Less popular games include Frontier-ville (11 million),
Mafia wars (8 million), and Words with Friends.
新しいゲームをローンチしたし、息の長いゲームも持っている。
最近出したのはEmpires and Alliesで、好評だ。
CityVilleは6900万のアクティブユーザー。
他にもいくつも出している。
Revenues in the most recent quarter were $275 million and profit margins could certainly rise.
The most recent valuation for Zynga was about $14 billion.
This suggests that investors believe that future earnings will be
materially higher than the earnings that were reported in the most recent quarter.
Here are some more news articles below talk
about the issues affecting financial results in the most recent quarter:
Here's a news release with Zynga's explanation[1]:
本クオーターでの収入は2.75億ドルで、利益率は上がっているはず。
Zyngaの価値は140億ドル。
投資家はもっと稼ぐと予想している。
いくつかのニュースがある。[1]
Zynga attributes its decline in profits to several major factors:
the lack of any new game launches in the first half of 2011
prior to Empires and Allies on March 31;
a higher than normal spend on hiring,
acquisitions and international growth; and Facebook's requirement this summer
that all game developers adopt its own Facebook Credits payment system,
which takes a 30% cut of revenue.
Zynga's total revenues for the quarter were up by 15%,
though this was slower growth than the previous quarter,
which jumped up by 24%.
However, the company's virtual goods sales and ad revenues were down
by 4% on the previous quarter,
and daily active users across all Zynga games
also dropped by around 4% from 62 million to 59 million.
This drop is attributed to a more competitive market than in prior quarters --
perhaps in part due to the launch of Google+ Games
and its less intrusive approach to the notorious "game spam"
that social games tend to generate.
いくつか要因があります。
Facebookに払ったのもありますが、何よりローンチできていないことです。
収入は15%上がりました。
しかしバーチャルグッズと広告の収入は4%下がりました。
デイリーアクティブユーザーも4%下がって5900万人になりました。
Google+の影響もあるでしょう。
あそこには悪名高い、ゲームスパムがありませんから。
Here's another[2]:
According to the company,
they feel they saw such a big dip in profit because of two major reasons:
They did not release a major game until the end of their first quarter of this year,
and they spent more money than ever
before in order to hire new employees and spread further internationally.
記事[2]によると
利益が大きく下がったのは2つの理由がある。
ローンチできていないことと、
大量に雇ったことだ。
Here's another[3]:
The studio has also seen a decline in the number of people
playing Zynga games on a daily basis,
as well as a reduction in virtual goods sales.
記事[3]によると
プレイする人が減っているし、
バーチャルグッズの販売も減っている。
